Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work

Magnificent Noise x Richard Kramer x Will Page
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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
BUBBLE TROUBLE

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Bubble Trouble features conversations between economist and author Will Page and independent analyst Richard Kramer that lay out some inconvenient truths about how financial markets really work. Like the “boy who cried wolf,” financial markets have a peculiar tendency to repeat past mistakes and get themselves into “bubble trouble.” They party hard, drink too much of the Kool Aid, and wake up with a pounding hangover...only to do the same thing the next day. With tech dominating daily headlines and teenage traders driving stocks to unprecedented valuations, you might be asking “What’s really going on?” “What am I missing?” Imagine having a set of tour guides to tell you the “story behind the story” of the world’s largest tech companies, and how they bend - or break - the rules of economics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

  1. 5 DAYS AGO

    Why Stocks Get Whacked

    When markets get fooled, stocks get …well, WHACKED, to quote a famous Kramerism. Our audience deserves to know more about volatility - for all the PhDs, MBAs and CFAs working on Wall Street, for all the compliance rules and regulations, why is it that a stock can go from hero to zero so quickly? Why is stability in itself destabilizing? [Repeat from May, 2024] For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) Understanding Market Volatility: The Seven Deadly Sins That Get Stocks Whacked In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosted by independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, the duo delves into the intricacies of stock market volatility and the factors that lead to significant drops in stock values, often referred to as getting 'whacked.' They explore why financial markets remain volatile despite compliance rules and thorough analysis by Wall Street's experts. Using recent examples like Duolingo and Double Verify, they highlight how sentiment, market expectations, and artificial intelligence fears influence stock performance. They introduce the concept of the seven deadly sins—ranging from expectations management to fake it till you make it—that companies and analysts commit, causing stocks to tank. The discussion covers essential themes like the role of credibility, influence of peer performance, external market factors, and the impact of fear and greed. They also touch on larger market dynamics, such as the dominance of tech giants and the influence of algorithmic trading. The episode is both an educational dive into market mechanics and a cautionary tale for investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding broader market sentiments and the potential pitfalls of speculative trading. 00:00 Introduction 01:18 Part One 02:30 Recent Examples of Stocks Getting Whacked 06:08 The Role of Expectations in Market Behavior 10:53 Credibility and Its Impact on Stocks 16:17 The Influence of Peer Groups and Market Share 18:19 Mathematical Models and Black Swans 23:09 Part Two 24:15 The Sheer Size of Companies and Market Impact 25:13 Big Companies and Revenue Growth Challenges 26:33 Market Dynamics and Money Managers 27:04 Thought Experiment: Market Crowding 28:53 Taxing Market Capitalization 34:18 Fear and Greed in Financial Markets 40:11 Unprofitable IPOs and Market Distortions 42:47 Seven Deadly Sins of Stock Trading 46:22 Conclusion and Final Thoughts 46:53 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    47 min

  2. DEC 9

    How Much Is Copyright Worth?

    In the last couple episodes, we've looked at the property market, we've looked at the demise of Credit Suisse, but now we're gonna go one-on-one with Will Page, talking about his latest work: How much is copyright worth and the way in which music is having its own, getting back at cinema. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com In this episode of Bubble Trouble, Richard Kramer and economist Will Page dive into the fascinating world of music copyright. They explore the market value, currently pegged at $45.5 billion, and discuss what this number entails, including the roles of record labels, collecting societies, and publishers. They delve deep into the growing significance of vinyl records, the influence of streaming services, and the striking impact of globalization on music trade flows. Additionally, they discuss new market opportunities, the potential for further growth, and the future of direct artist-to-fan engagements. Join the conversation to understand the changing dynamics of the music industry and the economic forces shaping it. 00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble 00:35 Part One 01:10 Exploring the Value of Copyright 02:23 The Economics of Music Copyright 07:12 Streaming vs. Cinema: A Shift in Consumption 17:08 The Vinyl Revival 19:31 Part Two 19:31 Global Impact of Music Copyright 22:32 The Global Impact of Reggaeton 22:47 Economic Disparities in Music Streaming 23:25 The Big Mac Index and Media Trade 24:50 K-Pop's Global Dominance 26:20 The Role of Government in Music Industry Success 28:36 Canada's Multicultural Music Scene 30:06 The Rise of Punjabi-Canadian Artists 33:12 The Future of Music Copyright and Streaming 37:41 Direct Artist-to-Fan Relationships 40:50 Emerging Markets and the Future of Copyright 41:51 Conclusion and Future Episodes Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    43 min

  3. DEC 2

    Learning From A Doer: A Conversation with Roger Madelin

    Today we are going deep with a real creator. No, not one of the avatars of AI influencers in the creator economy, but someone who builds things that take 20 years to complete, Roger Madelin, CBE, the name behind the scenes in making London's Kings Cross a reality. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) Transformation and Challenges with King's Cross Visionary Roger Madeline In this episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into urban development with Roger Madelin, CBE. Known for his transformative work at London's King's Cross, Roger shares insights on large-scale urban projects, navigating economic cycles, and the intricacies of aligning diverse stakeholders' interests. The discussion also covers the controversial HS2 rail project, the importance of integrating cultural elements in city planning, and the current political landscape influencing housing policies. Roger emphasizes the need for a strong vision, the significance of public spaces, and the necessity of balancing private and public sector efforts to create vibrant, inclusive urban environments. 00:00 Introduction 00:48 Part One 02:16 Transforming King's Cross 03:56 Reflecting on Urban Development 05:48 The Impact of Smartening Up Train Stations 08:45 Navigating Economic Cycles in Urban Projects 15:20 The Future of Workspaces Post-COVID 20:09 Balancing Luxury and Community in Property Development 24:48 Preview of Part Two: HS2 and Urban Planning Challenges 25:34 Part Two 26:50 Challenges of High-Speed Rail in the UK 29:43 The Flaws in High-Speed Two's Business Case 32:08 Comparing High-Speed One and High-Speed Two 34:00 The Importance of Comfort Over Speed 36:03 The Role of Arts and Culture in City Development 42:09 Political and Economic Challenges in Urban Development 52:24 Closing Remarks and Reflections 53:17 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    53 min

  4. NOV 25

    The Meltdown of Credit Suisse w/ Duncan Mavin

    On Bubble Trouble, we are never short of subject matter: from the metaverse, NFTs and Chinese real estate, to Silicon Valley Bank and er… that small issue of a former global powerhouse Credit Suisse. Remember them? Well our guest, Duncan Mavin, knows their story better than anyone, and he’s documented them in the wonderfully titled Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze and the Collapse of Credit Suisse.  For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) Credit Suisse: A Rolling Crisis in Banking Scandals In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer discuss the collapse of Credit Suisse with journalist and author Duncan Maven. They delve into Maven's book 'Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze, and the Collapse of Credit Suisse,' exploring the myriad of crises that plagued the bank. They touch on scandals ranging from rogue traders and sanctions busting to laundering Nazi gold and funding corrupt projects in Mozambique. The conversation also highlights the rapid acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS over a tense and decisive weekend. Duncan Maven provides insights into the bank’s culture, the broader implications for the banking sector, and why people should care about the ethics in banking. The episode concludes with the discussion of warning signs (or smoke signals) that indicate deeper issues within financial institutions. 00:00 Introduction 01:00 Part One 01:09 Guest Introduction: Duncan Maven 02:31 The Rise and Fall of Credit Suisse 03:32 The Impact of White Collar Crime 05:08 Cultural Issues at Credit Suisse 09:56 Historical Context of Swiss Banking 15:21 The Mozambique Scandal 19:49 The Role of Social Media in Credit Suisse's Collapse 23:00 The Bulgarian Mafia and Credit Suisse Scandal 23:47 Part Two 23:54 The Collapse of Credit Suisse 24:32 UBS Absorbs Credit Suisse 26:41 The Aftermath and Lingering Scandals 28:57 The Swiss Financial Crisis 32:58 The Future of Swiss Banking 40:05 Reception of the Book 42:08 Smoke Signals and Final Thoughts 46:37 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    47 min

  5. NOV 18

    Fiscal Drag Queen

    This week, we’re talking taxes. Don’t switch off, don’t fall asleep and please don’t hire an accountant as the next 45 minutes will defy the laws of gravity and make taxes sexy. Or make saxes testy…  [Repeat from March, 2024.] Mentioned in today’s show: Barbarians at the Gate: https://youtu.be/Z3HiONtjZSM?si=xZ64zb46sYIfSs5Z For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the complex world of taxes with humor and depth. They discuss the UK's tax system, the incentives it creates, and its contribution to economic inequalities. The duo delves into the problems of the tax code, including issues surrounding tax avoidance by the wealthy, lack of public sector productivity improvements, and the inefficiencies within the HMRC. Kramer and Page critique the approach of privatizing public utilities and the potential problems with private equity in the public sector. They also touch on broader issues like the lack of investment in tax authority systems and propose using tax policies for positive changes, like encouraging the shift from petrol to electric cars in Denmark. Through their insightful conversation, Kramer and Page aim to demystify taxes and highlight their significant impact on society. 00:00 Introduction 00:46 Part One 00:51 The UK's Budget Week and Tax System Insights 01:48 Tax Evasion vs. Public Sector Productivity 02:46 The Inequality of Tax Codes: A Global Issue 04:03 Tax System Flaws and Their Impact on Society 07:22 VAT: The Taxpayer as Tax Collector 11:31 The Complexity of National Insurance 13:43 Simplifying Tax Systems: A Call for Transparency 16:28 Private Equity and Tax Systems: A New Challenge 22:39 Decoding the Fiscal Drag Queen 23:00 The Political Divide on Taxation 23:21 Economic Lecture: Tax Burden and Growth 25:07 The Impact of Fiscal Drag on Tax Bands 26:15 The Surprising Windfall from Fiscal Drag 27:22 Part Two 27:45 Exploring the World of Private Equity 28:51 The Tax Loopholes Fueling Private Equity 32:24 The Potential Bubble in Public Utilities 36:26 The Disconnect Between Tax Policy and Reality 43:58 A Positive Tax Example from Denmark 47:28 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    48 min

  6. NOV 11

    Sonic Shifts: How Tech and Culture are Changing the Music Industry with Mark Mulligan

    This week we welcome Mark Mulligan of MIDiA Research who has had a ringside seat for years and years of bubbles, be it the creator economy, NFTs or AI music, or just everyone claiming they are gaining market share at the same time. He is the founder and driving force behind the tiny little company that an entire industry looks to as the source of truth. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page are joined by Mark Mulligan, a leading music industry analyst and founder of MIDiA Research. They delve into the intricate world of the music industry, discussing the evolution from digital streaming to the rise of new phenomena such as NFTs and AI in music. The trio explores the concept of bifurcation in markets and the distinction between high-end experiences versus bargain deals within the industry. The conversation also touches on the significant cultural shifts, the role of trade associations, and the future of personalized music experiences. Despite the optimism around technology, the hosts remain critical of mainstream narratives, emphasizing the importance of genuine innovation and realistic market assessments. This insightful and provocative discussion is a must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of music, technology, and finance. 00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble 01:02 Welcoming Special Guest Mark Mulligan 01:26 Mark Mulligan's Background and Insights 02:34 The Evolution of Music Supply 04:20 The Democratization of Music Creation 06:13 AI and the Future of Music 12:16 Fragmentation and Hyper-Targeting in Media 13:40 The Role of Superstars and Long Tail Creators 19:20 Streaming Platforms: Carnivores vs. Herbivores 25:45 TikTok's Influence on the Music Industry 27:33 Part Two 28:38 Diving into the Music Industry's Hype 30:08 Constructive Criticism in Emerging Technologies 30:39 The Metaverse and NFTs: A Skeptical View 31:28 Frameworks for Assessing New Technologies 33:10 The Future of Digital Fandom 35:15 Bifurcation in the Market 43:07 Pendulum Swings in Technology Adoption 44:54 Lessons from the Aviation Industry 46:29 Final Thoughts and Predictions 52:00 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    52 min

  7. NOV 4

    New Media Overtaking Old Media with Lauren Jarvis

    Podcasts are having another moment:  Trump on Joe Rogan, Kamala on Call Her Daddy. New media is overtaking old media in audience and influence. Back in early 2023, we welcomed guest Lauren Jarvis, who helped bring Rogan to Spotify and growing podcasts into the medium we see today. Given this week’s election mania, we bring Lauren back to make sense of it all.  For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) The Podcast Boom: Analyzing Influence and the Future of Media In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the evolving landscape of the podcast industry with guest Lauren Jarvis. They discuss the resurgence of podcasts as a significant media platform, touching on notable examples like Joe Rogan's recent Trump interview. The conversation also covers the economic potential of podcasts, their role in reaching new audiences, and the gamification of learning as a growing trend in tech. Jarvis shares insights on the integration of technology into daily life and the future of media consumption. 00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble 00:59 Part One 02:52 Political Influence of Podcasts 05:26 Audience Engagement and Monetization 09:09 The Future of Media Consumption 22:11 Part Two 22:13 Tech Trends and Predictions 37:46 AI and Data Utilization 46:12 Closing Thoughts and Farewell 48:33 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    49 min

  8. OCT 28

    Solving for X

    Repeat from November, 2023. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in an in-depth discussion with Alex Kantrowitz, veteran tech journalist and founder of Big Technology. The discussion provides insights on some of the issues and dilemmas facing Twitter (now called X) under the leadership of Elon Musk. Kantrowitz offers valuable perspectives on the changing dynamics in the tech world, touching on the rise of Reddit, problems with 'Threads', and the impact of new leadership on Twitter's performance and brand value. The conversation also delves into the principle of 'Effective Altruism' prevalent in Silicon Valley and what it signifies about tech leadership. Analysis of recent data reveals Twitter's shrinking user base and engagement, though it remains a highly popular app. The episode wraps with Kantrowitz sharing about his newsletter 'Big Technology', and its recent features. 00:00 Introduction and Welcome 00:46 Part One 00:52 Interview with Tech Journalist Alex Kantrowicz 02:17 Exploring Twitter's History and Business Model 06:52 Twitter's Influence and Impact on Journalism 07:32 The Decline of Traditional Media and the Rise of Digital Platforms 08:45 Twitter's Role in the Attention Economy 09:54 Twitter's Popularity and Influence Despite Declining Numbers 15:06 Analyzing Twitter's User Data and Trends 28:47 Part Two 32:37 The Future of Twitter: Cyclical or Structural Decline? 36:26 Twitter's Competition: Reddit and Threads 36:34 The Struggles of Threads 36:59 The Power of Network Effects 38:17 The Limitations of Threads 39:48 The Rise of Reddit 40:04 The Role of Reddit in the Social Media Landscape 40:54 The Impact of Pocket App on Twitter 41:25 The Irrelevance of Threads and the Power of Meta 44:20 The Challenges Twitter Faces 45:50 Potential Strategies to Save Twitter 49:32 The Future of Twitter Under Musk's Leadership 54:51 The Role of Effective Altruism in Tech Companies 58:57 The Danger of Singular Solutions 59:27 The Value of Comments and the Future of Twitter 01:01:38 Closing Remarks and Promotion of Big Technology 01:02:34 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    1h 3m
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Bubble Trouble features conversations between economist and author Will Page and independent analyst Richard Kramer that lay out some inconvenient truths about how financial markets really work. Like the “boy who cried wolf,” financial markets have a peculiar tendency to repeat past mistakes and get themselves into “bubble trouble.” They party hard, drink too much of the Kool Aid, and wake up with a pounding hangover...only to do the same thing the next day. With tech dominating daily headlines and teenage traders driving stocks to unprecedented valuations, you might be asking “What’s really going on?” “What am I missing?” Imagine having a set of tour guides to tell you the “story behind the story” of the world’s largest tech companies, and how they bend - or break - the rules of economics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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